Stuck in Pool A with New Zealand and France, neither Italy nor Uruguay were ever likely to escape the group. Their meeting on Wednesday still holds tremendous jeopardy.
World Rugby is expected to continue granting automatic qualification for Rugby World Cup 2027. Those spots have gone to the top three teams in each pool of the prior Cup. With the top two slots likely taken, the mid-week matchup could spare a Tier 2 side from qualification and create mild chaos in Tier 1.
A bit of history. The World Cup was the brain child of the International Rugby Football Board (the predecessor to World Rugby). That group was comprised of the (at the time) Five Nations of England, Ireland, France, wales and Scotland, as well as New Zealand and Australia. (South Africa was banned from international competition at the time despite being the eighth heavyweight of rugby at the time.) Those seven sides invited nine more without any formal qualifying. With the biggest sides controlling the global body, they built competing producing more and more money while adding more teams only to spur financial growth for the original big boys. To this day, the eight teams maintain control over the governing side of the global game.
The use of automatic qualification in World Cups filled that objective. The well funded top nations were unlikely to fall from the top slots of each pool. The most recent case of an active member of the Six Nations or Rugby Championship missing automatic qualification was Italy going into 2007. That was also the final Cup to feature only eight automatic spots. (It’s worth noting that their were nine teams between the two competitions at that time.) Since then, three sides have always gained qualification through the pool.
Automatic qualification sets up the Old Boys to maintain their financial advantage. As sides perceived to be outside the top tier battle for a seat at the table, the rich insulate themselves, playing each other in well attended, profitable one off games and tours. It maintains the façade of an open competition while keeping the money with the rich and corrupt sides get richer and more corrupt. (Look up the raids on the World Cup office in France if you don’t believe me.)
That brings us to Italy and Uruguay.
Italy isn’t the side anyone would hope to fall. In many ways, they’re one of only the examples of a side breaking into the old boys on the field. But they’re the ones that may be pushed into qualifying. Italy currently sits on five points, while Uruguay hasn’t put a point on the table yet. The key difference is schedule. Italy ran through Namibia, while Uruguay put a real test to France. Both will have two games left after they meet. For the winner, the path to third will be clear.
Should Uruguay win, qualifying won’t be a concern for 2027. They’ll be able to focus on playing other qualified teams and building a squad over four years. They’ll also know the financial benefits to expect at the end of that journey.
On the flip side, Italy would still surely qualify via the regional process. What that process would entail is a bigger question. In recent years, Rugby Europe has sent the top two teams from a combined table of the Championship over two years. With Italy outside that competition, an accommodation would need to be made. The test calendar for the Azzurri would be filled. Needing to win throughout the process, they wouldn’t be able to focus on a single four year build up. (It’s worth acknowledging how young the current side is. Players again or during qualifying isn’t a big concern.)
The whole thing could be little more than mild chaos. World Rugby would proudly use the PR to claim the Cup is truly open and anyone can succeed.
Behind the scenes, they’d be worried. The system designed to protect them all would show its first crack. The bigger the competitive class becomes, the more likely one of them will fall below the red line.
None of this matters unless Uruguay can pull the win. But after they threatened the hosts, the eyes of the elite will be watching. Everyone pulling for Tier 2 will be behind them.
Besides, how can you not pull for chaos?
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